According to its first forecasts, the Accident Insurance Centre (TVK) estimates the number of accidents at work at 93,000 and commuting accidents at 17,000 in 2021, i.e. an increase of 7% and 6.4% respectively compared to 2020.
In 2020, the number of accidents at work and commuting accidents had strongly decreased due to the health crisis: -18% of accidents at work and -30% of commuting accidents. This year, the increase is largely explained by the surprisingly fast economic recovery. The frequency of accidents is expected to increase to 26.5 accidents per million hours worked, against 25 in 2020. In addition, the decrease in teleworking will have an impact on the number of commuting accidents, which will be on the rise, but still 12.9% lower than in 2019. Many people still work remotely, which reduces the number of commuting accidents.
These forecasts can still change between now and the end of the year due to the pandemic, possible new restrictions, teleworking, changing modes of transport to and from work, but also the weather conditions. Indeed, a “slippery” week or a particularly slippery day can increase the number of TAs by up to a thousand. The effect is particularly visible in the number of commuting accidents, but also in jobs that require travelling or working outside.
The forecasts are based on the notifications of accidents to the competent insurance companies. In order to increase their reliability, TVK has started work with the aim of integrating different indicators describing the state and evolution of the economy. The first results are satisfactory.
Find out more (pdf in Finnish)